In January 2026

Regional economy maintained its growth trajectory, but with a further slowdown

The Regional Indicator of Economic Activity (RIEA) shows that, in January 2026, the regional economy maintained its growth trajectory, albeit showing a further slowdown compared to the previous month, the fourth consecutive one.

As stated by DREM in the first release of the RIEA, in October 2017, its purpose is to “signal the behaviour of economic activity, namely with regard to its direction and the magnitude of fluctuations: whether it is in positive or negative territory, accelerations, decelerations and the identification of turning points”. Its quantitative value, therefore, assumes secondary importance and should not be regarded as a substitute for the real growth rate of Gross Domestic Product, which is calculated using a broader and more comprehensive set of statistical information, although a strong correlation exists between the two variables.

Economic Activity

In January 2026, the regional economy maintained its growth trajectory, whilst showing signs of moderation compared to the previous month.

The number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments decreased by 1.6%, a situation that had not occurred since the pandemic. Total revenue grew by 8.4%, continuing the slowdown trend that began in July. RevPAR, consequently, showed the same trend, decelerating to 7.6% (11.9% in December and 18.2% in July).

Electricity distribution remained in positive territory, with an increase of 3.9%, higher than that recorded in the previous month (3.0%). In the opposite direction, diesel release for consumption recorded a decrease of 2.4%, worsening the reduction observed in December (-2.1%).

In turn, the ratio of newly incorporated to dissolved companies stood at 3.4 new companies per dissolution, a value above that observed in the previous month (2.5).

Qualitative Indicators

In January 2026, confidence indicators decreased, compared to the previous month, in the Manufacturing and Services sectors, whilst improvements were recorded in Trade and in Construction and Public Works.

Private Consumption

In the reference month, gasoline release for consumption recorded a year-on-year change of 5.1%, lower than that recorded in December (6.8%), confirming a slowdown in growth dynamics that has been observed since September.

The outstanding balance of loans for consumption and other purposes granted to households and non-profit institutions serving households increased by 9.0%, slightly above the value observed in the previous month (8.9%).

Cash withdrawals and purchases through automatic payment terminals (APT) with national cards grew by 3.9%, decelerating compared to December (4.5%).

Purchases of new light passenger cars decreased by 3.4%, reflecting a less intense contraction than that observed in the preceding month (-5.8%).

Investment

In January 2026, investment indicators showed a predominantly negative trend.

Sales of light commercial vehicles recorded a decrease of 19.6%, albeit less pronounced than that observed in December (-31.0%).

On the other hand, the balance of loans granted to non-financial corporations decreased by 0.9%, representing a more pronounced reduction than that recorded in the previous month (-0.4%).

Cement sales also remained in negative territory, with a year-on-year change of -4.1%, attenuating, however, the decline observed in December (-11.8%).

In the opposite direction, the balance of housing loans granted to households and bank appraisals for housing increased by 8.7% and 20.0%, respectively, maintaining a growth trajectory.

Regarding the number of building permits, a decrease of 24.3% was recorded (-13.2% in the previous month).

External Demand

In January 2026, regional exports of goods decreased by 11.3%, worsening the negligible change recorded in the previous month.

In turn, imports of goods increased by 30.9%, accelerating compared to the growth recorded in December (20.2%).

The movement of goods at the Region's ports decreased by 4.6%, reversing the growth trend observed in the previous month.

Passenger traffic at regional airports remained in positive territory, recording an increase of 4.2%, albeit at a slower pace than that recorded in December (7.4%).

Regarding cash withdrawals and purchases through APT with international cards, a decrease of 0.5% was observed, reversing the growth recorded in the previous month (4.1%).

Labour Market

In January 2026, the number of registered unemployed decreased by 6.9%, maintaining the downward trajectory of previous months, albeit less intense than that recorded in December (-7.8%).

Job applications recorded a decrease of 7.4%, confirming the continuation of the declining trend, albeit slightly less pronounced than in the preceding month (-7.7%).

In turn, job offers intensified their decline, recording a year-on-year change of -21.5%, following the 18.3% fall observed in December.

Prices

The year-on-year rate of change of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.3% in January 2026, after the 3.1% recorded in the previous month.

Inflation in goods stood at 1.3% (2.1% in December), whilst in services it decelerated to 3.4%, after the 4.4% observed in the preceding month.

Underlying inflation indicator, which excludes unprocessed food and energy products, decreased to 2.0%, after the 2.7% recorded in December.

 

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